Re: For you gamblers and dystopia-philes - from today's New York Times

From: toughslush <meurtre_at_earthlink.net_at_hypermail.org>
Date: Tue, 05 Aug 2003 04:12:03 -0000

As I understand it, the rationale is that people do their best
homework when their personal fortunes are at stake, and this
would recruit a lot of analysts ouside the habit-bound existing
security agencies. It's a bizarre idea, though.

OTOH, as they say, "the last time DARPA got creative, we got the
internet."

--Q.M.


--- In OliveStarlightOrchestra_at_yahoogroups.com, "Joya Beebe"
<joyab_at_f...> wrote:
> OK, I can understand the idea that it might be a useful
predictor. But
> not only is it in hideously bad taste, what's to stop the
perception -
> or even actuality - that people, including government people
potentially
> - will attempt to carry out assassinations in order to make
money on
> this new "stock"? This "futures" market sounds straight out of
a
> dystopian "future" movie, where the lone guy has to stop the
murder and
> uncover the conspiracy ... John Frankenheimer, where are
you?
>
> *****************
> Pentagon Prepares a Futures Market on Terror Attacks
> By CARL HULSE
>
>
> WASHINGTON, July 28 - The Pentagon office that proposed
spying
> electronically on Americans to monitor potential terrorists has
a new
> experiment. It is an online futures trading market, disclosed
today by
> critics, in which anonymous speculators would bet on
forecasting
> terrorist attacks, assassinations and coups.
>
> Traders bullish on a biological attack on Israel or bearish on
the
> chances of a North Korean missile strike would have the
opportunity to
> bet on the likelihood of such events on a new Internet site
established
> by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency.
>
> The Pentagon called its latest idea a new way of predicting
events and
> part of its search for the "broadest possible set of new ways to
prevent
> terrorist attacks." Two Democratic senators who reported the
plan called
> it morally repugnant and grotesque. The senators said the
program fell
> under the control of Adm. John M. Poindexter, President
Ronald Reagan's
> national security adviser.
>
> One of the two senators, Byron L. Dorgan of North Dakota, said
the idea
> seemed so preposterous that he had trouble persuading
people it was not
> a hoax. "Can you imagine," Mr. Dorgan asked, "if another
country set up
> a betting parlor so that people could go in - and is sponsored
by the
> government itself - people could go in and bet on the
assassination of
> an American political figure?"
>
> After Mr. Dorgan and his fellow critic, Ron Wyden of Oregon,
spoke out,
> the Pentagon sought to play down the importance of a program
for which
> the Bush administration has sought $8 million through 2005.
The White
> House also altered the Web site so that the potential events to
be
> considered by the market that were visible earlier in the day at
> www.policyanalysismarket.org could no longer be seen.
>
> But by that time, Republican officials in the Senate were
privately
> shaking their heads over the planned trading. One top aide
said he hoped
> that the Pentagon had a good explanation for it.
>
> The Pentagon, in defending the program, said such futures
trading had
> proven effective in predicting other events like oil prices,
elections
> and movie ticket sales.
>
> "Research indicates that markets are extremely efficient,
effective and
> timely aggregators of dispersed and even hidden information,"
the
> Defense Department said in a statement. "Futures markets
have proven
> themselves to be good at predicting such things as elections
results;
> they are often better than expert opinions."
>
> According to descriptions given to Congress, available at the
Web site
> and provided by the two senators, traders who register would
deposit
> money into an account similar to a stock account and win or
lose money
> based on predicting events.
>
> "For instance," Mr. Wyden said, "you may think early on that
Prime
> Minister X is going to be assassinated. So you buy the futures
contracts
> for 5 cents each. As more people begin to think the person's
going to be
> assassinated, the cost of the contract could go up, to 50 cents.
>
> "The payoff if he's assassinated is $1 per future. So if it comes
to
> pass, and those who bought at 5 cents make 95 cents. Those
who bought at
> 50 cents make 50 cents."
>
> The senators also suggested that terrorists could participate
because
> the traders' identities will be unknown.
>
> "This appears to encourage terrorists to participate, either to
profit
> from their terrorist activities or to bet against them in order to
> mislead U.S. intelligence authorities," they said in a letter to
Admiral
> Poindexter, the director of the Terrorism Information
Awareness Office,
> which the opponents said had developed the idea.
>
> The initiative, called the Policy Analysis Market, is to begin
> registering up to 1,000 traders on Friday. It is the latest
problem for
> the advanced projects agency, or Darpa, a Pentagon unit that
has run
> into controversy for the Terrorism Information Office. Admiral
> Poindexter once described a sweeping electronic surveillance
plan as a
> way of forestalling terrorism by tapping into computer
databases to
> collect medical, travel, credit and financial records.
>
> Worried about the reach of the program, Congress this year
prohibited
> what was called the Total Information Awareness program
from being used
> against Americans. Its name was changed to the Terrorism
Information
> Awareness program.
>
> This month, the Senate agreed to block all spending on the
program. The
> House did not. Mr. Wyden said he hoped that the new
disclosure about the
> trading program would be the death blow for Admiral
Poindexter's plan.
>
> The Pentagon did not provide details of the program like how
much money
> participants would have to deposit in accounts. Trading is to
begin on
> Oct. 1, with the number of participants initially limited to 1,000
and
> possibly expanding to 10,000 by Jan. 1.
>
> "Involvement in this group prediction process should prove
engaging and
> may prove profitable," the Web site said.
>
> The overview of the plan said the market would focus on the
economic,
> civil and military futures of Egypt, Jordan, Iran, Iraq, Israel,
Saudi
> Arabia, Syria and Turkey and the consequences of United
States
> involvement with those nations. The creators of the market
envision
> other trappings of existing markets like derivatives.
>
> In a statement, Darpa said the trading idea was "currently a
small
> research program that faces a number of major technical
challenges and
> uncertainties."
>
> "Chief among these," the agency said, "are: Can the market
survive and
> will people continue to participate when U.S. authorities use it
to
> prevent terrorist attacks? Can futures markets be manipulated
by
> adversaries?"
>
> Mr. Dorgan and Mr. Wyden called for an immediate end to the
project and
> said they would use its existence to justify cutting off financial
> support for the overall effort. In the letter to Admiral Poindexter,
> they called the initiative a "wasteful and absurd" use of tax
dollars.
>
> "The American people want the federal government to use its
resources
> enhancing our security, not gambling on it," the letter said.
Received on 2003-08-04 21:12:06