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This is a review of a book by Ray Kurzweil, who is a leader among a group of futurists that I used to hang out with, but has gone on his own way and has left those hyper-libertarian geeks behind.
Kurzweil has been accused of taking many trends and extrapolating only the most daring and optimistic and running with them. I, for one, wish that he would have just a little more concern for those who could lose their productivity and livelihoods due to automation.
Still, it is nice to see such faith in the future, and if only half of this stuff comes true, the 21st Century may be a glorious one after all.
L
w: [Re: New Book on the Future by Ray Kutzweil
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Ray Kurzweil, The Singularity Is Near:When Humans Transcend Biology
(ISBN: 0670033847; 416 pages; List Price = $25.95; Amazon.com Price = $17.65;
Viking Adult; Future Publication Date: September 22, 2005).
Here is a review that gushes with hype... -- Steve Coles
"I Can't Wait until the Future Gets Here"
February 10, 2005; Ames, IA (U-Wire -- Iowa State University) -- Most people
think the best the future holds for us is nicer cars and better-smelling shampoo.
Nothing could be further from the truth. We stand on the cusp of a bold new era
in the history of our species in which we will see the end of death, disease, and
sorrow. Although it may not seem like it now, by the time our 30-year reunions
roll around, we will be living in a world more alien than most science-fiction
movies can even touch upon.
Technology has been accelerating since the dawn of our species. As one discovery
is made, the doors to other mysteries are unlocked, which in turn unlock more doors
in an exponential cascade of technological advancement. It took eons to develop
language, millennia to develop writing, centuries until the printing press, decades
to reach the computer age, and only a few years for the Internet to go from nonexistent
to universally pervasive.
Inventor's Hall-of-Fame inductee Ray Kurzweil has said the magnitude of the
achievements of the 20th-Century will comfortably fit into the first 20 years of the
21st century. Kurzweil suggests that after that it will take only 14 years for technological
progress to double, and it will happen again seven years after that. Eventually, within
our lifetimes, we will reach a point of infinite societal, economic, and technological
acceleration known as "The Singularity."
The first and most obvious leap in technology will be in computer science. It is
predicted that by 2019, about the time most current college students will be raising
families and building careers, a $1,000 computer will have the processing power of
"the human brain." By 2030, an equally-priced computer will have the processing
power of several hundred brains. By 2050, $1,000 will buy more processing power
than all the human brains on the planet!
These advancements are going to lead to radical shifts in the socioeconomic
framework of our society. The most significant shift will be in automation. Ten years
from now, computer technology will be advanced enough to displace massive segments
of the population from the workforce. Why would a company want to pay a forklift
driver more than $40,000 a year in wages and benefits when a $5,000 computer will
do the same job all day long with no breaks for years, only to be replaced by another
at one-tenth the cost?
Coming on the heels of this automation revolution is the single greatest achievement
of our species... According to Anti-Aging Researcher Aubrey de Grey, in the next
decade, we will be adding more than one year to our life expectancies every year,
effectively keeping "the cold hand of death at bay." He also predicts that we will be
able to stop aging in mice in the next ten years and will have human therapies
to stop, even reverse, aging in as little as [5 - 10] years after that. This makes the
prospect of clinical immortality (the ability to stop aging and disease) something
members of our generation should put considerable effort into.
This will coincide with the "nanotech revolution." Nanotechnology allows machines
to be constructed at the atomic level. These nanomachines will be able to manipulate
individual atoms, much like the enzymes in our own bodies do, but on a much larger
scale. Nanotechnology will enable us to convert carbon dioxide from smokestacks
into valuable carbon atoms and oxygen molecules and construct buildings, roads,
cars or anything else one atom at a time. Carbon nanofiber, already in use in industry,
is 100 times lighter than steel. Using such a material, we could effectively construct
skyscrapers more than 600 times taller, and as strong as diamonds (a diamond is only
carbon), if we used present construction techniques.
Nanotechnology will enable us to build space elevators that extend into the stratosphere,
initiating a golden age in modern space travel by launching payloads by means of magnetic
rail and at a fraction of the cost of today's standards. In addition, nanorobots are much
like biological organisms, only they are designed by humans. These nanorobots could
be sent ahead of us into space, self-replicating like bacteria, to produce a livable,
breathable environment on Mars and Venus.
What I have described does not even scratch the surface of the progress we may
witness in the coming decades. These are not the flying-car and monorail pipe-dream
fantasies of the 1960s, but are predictions based on science that is happening now and
will lead us into the golden age of our species.
We may see the end of the world as we know it, perhaps even the end of the universe,
provided we play our cards right. We have much to look forward to in the coming centuries,
and we may be there to experience it with our Great-Great-Great-Great Grandchildren.
The age of death and disease is on the way out! The age of "[nearly] infinite lifespans" and
"eternal bliss" has yet to begin. We could bear witness to the end of our species and the
evolution of our successors. This is our last chance to be human as we dwell in the brief
transition between the ages. It's the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine.
L. Stephen Coles, M.D., Ph.D., Co-Founder
Los Angeles Gerontology Research Group
URL:
http://www.grg.org
URL:
http://www.bol.ucla.edu/~scoles
E-mail: scoles_at_ucla.edu
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Received on 2005-02-18 19:43:45